Suppose you are on a game show where the host shows you three doors. Behind one of these doors is a brand new car. Behind the other two are goats. Youget to pick a door. Then the host will open one of the doors you didnt open and reveal one of the goats.
He asks : “Do you want to switch doors? Or do you want to stay with the door you chose?”
What do you do?
Your first thought is to stay with the door you chose.
■ It’s worked out pretty well so far, right?
■ Since there are only two doors at this point, you reason it’s a 50-50 shot at winning the car.
The best strategy is to SWITCH every time.
● A player whose strategy is to switch every time will lose when the door they initially selected had the car behind it.
● Since the odds of choosing the car on the first move are one in three, the odds of losing the game when you swith every time are also one in three
● This means that a person who switches every time will one two-thirds of the time
●This is double the odds of winning of the person whose strategy is to stay every time.